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Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

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2020 Fall report

Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from October 1 to November 30
Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from October 1 to November 30.
  • The Arctic sea ice area will advance at slower speed than the last year, especially in the Russian and Atlantic sides.
  • The sea routes of Russian side will close around October 17, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 28.
Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1
Predicted sea ice concentration on November 1
Predicted sea ice concentration on November 30
Figure 2. Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1, November 1 and November 30.

Arctic sea ice area started advancing. The advance speed will be slower than the normal year especially in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, and Atlantic side. On the other hand around the American coast, the ice area will advance at a faster speed compared with the normal year.

Sea routes of Russian side will close around October 17. The route of Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 28.

This prediction is basing on the relation between the speeds of summer ice retreat and fall ice advance (see2017 Fall Report).

Contact

If you have any questions about satellite monitoring of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasting, or the forecasting methods used here, please contact the Sea Ice Information Center（sea_ice@nipr.ac.jp）

The sea ice forecast and its basic research were started in GRENE, continued to ArCS Project, and has been conducted in ArCS II Project since 2020.

Arctic Sea Ice Forecast